Huidige Coalitie: Tidö-Akkoord
Vorming: Oktober 2022 | Status: Actief | Meerderheid: 176 zetels (van 349 totaal)
Moderates (M)
68 zetels
Leider: Ulf Kristersson (Prime Minister)
Christian Democrats (KD)
19 zetels
Leider: Ebba Busch
Sweden Democrats (SD)
73 zetels
Leider: Jimmie Åkesson
Liberals (L) - Steun
16 zetels
Leider: Johan Pehrson
Coalitie Stabiliteitsanalyse
Meerderheidsvoorsprong: 1 zetel (zeer smal)
CIA Risk Assessment: 12 MAJOR alerts, 5 CRITICAL alerts detected (last 90 days)
Fragility Indicators: Ideological tensions between SD and L, vulnerable to defections
Stability Score: Moderate Risk (72%)
Comprehensive Intelligence Platform
CIA delivers systematic political transparency through 45 risk rules across 4 domains and 5 analytical frameworks.
🔍 Real-Time Monitoring
- 349 MPs tracked automatically
- 10,000+ votes analyzed annually
- 20,000+ documents processed
- Committee work quantified
- Debate performance metrics
📊 Coalition Prediction
- 4 election scenarios modeled
- Historical pattern analysis (1971-2024)
- Party discipline tracking
- Defection probability estimation
- Government formation simulation
✅ Fact-Checking Infrastructure
- Politician claims vs. voting records
- Party platform consistency analysis
- Campaign promise tracking
- Real-time debate verification
- Historical accountability metrics
⚠️ Risk Assessment
- 45 behavioral risk rules active
- MINOR/MAJOR/CRITICAL severity levels
- Automated alert system
- Trend analysis for context
- Transparent methodology
45 Risk Rules Across 4 Domains
- Politician-Level (20 rules): Attendance, voting consistency, role conflicts, productivity
- Party-Level (12 rules): Coalition discipline, ideological drift, internal conflicts
- Committee-Level (8 rules): Legislative productivity, partisan deadlock, expert testimony
- Ministry-Level (5 rules): Budget overruns, policy failures, accountability lapses
5 Analytical Frameworks
- Temporal Analysis: Trend detection across time periods
- Comparative Analysis: Cross-party/MP benchmarking
- Pattern Recognition: Behavioral anomaly detection
- Predictive Intelligence: Election outcome forecasting, coalition modeling
- Network Analysis: Influence mapping, collaboration patterns
Election 2026 Monitoring Timeline
Phase 1: Pre-Campaign (Now - December 2025)
- Historical baseline analysis (2022-2025)
- Coalition stability tracking
- MP behavioral pattern establishment
- Pilot program participant selection
Phase 2: Campaign Period (January - August 2026)
- Real-time MP activity monitoring
- Party platform analysis
- Coalition negotiation pattern detection
- Debate performance quantification
- Voter sentiment analysis
Phase 3: Election Day (September 2026)
- Live results aggregation from Valmyndigheten
- Instant coalition formation scenarios
- Historical comparison with previous elections
- Predictive modeling for government formation
Phase 4: Post-Election (October - December 2026)
- Coalition stability assessment
- Government formation prediction accuracy evaluation
- Lessons learned documentation
- International replication planning
Predictive Coalition Scenarios
Based on CIA's 45 risk rules and 50 years of historical data analysis
Scenario 1: The Fragmentation (40% probability)
SD breaks from Tidö coalition over policy dispute. Early warning detected 3 months before via voting pattern analysis.
- Trigger: Immigration policy disagreement or EU integration stance
- Outcome: Early election call, chaos, coalition realignment
- CIA Detection: Voting discipline breakdown, defection signals
Scenario 2: The Silent Coalition (35% probability)
Social Democrats (S) + Moderates (M) secret negotiation post-election. Network analysis detects behind-the-scenes connections.
- Trigger: Stalemate prevents traditional coalition formation
- Outcome: Political earthquake, establishment parties merge, new center
- CIA Detection: Committee cooperation patterns, voting convergence
Scenario 3: The Radical Shift (15% probability)
Left Party (V) + Center Party (C) unexpected alliance. Predictive modeling identifies policy overlap areas.
- Trigger: Environmental/agricultural policy convergence
- Outcome: Ideological realignment, horseshoe theory validated
- CIA Detection: Cross-ideology committee work, voting pattern similarity
Scenario 4: The Status Quo (10% probability)
Tidö coalition survives and wins reelection. BUT: CIA detects 23 CRITICAL alerts ignored by mainstream analysis.
- Trigger: Economic stability maintains voter confidence despite internal tensions
- Outcome: Slow-motion collapse begins 2027, CIA validated retrospectively
- CIA Detection: Accumulated risk indicators show underlying fragility
Swedish Election 2026 Pilot Program
Limited slots: 5 Swedish + 10 Global media organizations
🇸🇪 Swedish Media Organizations
€5,000/month (50% discount)
6 months (April - September 2026)
Features:
- Full Enterprise API access (unlimited requests)
- Swedish-specific risk rules and analytics
- Integration with Swedish media CMS systems
- Dedicated Swedish-speaking support engineer
- White-label dashboards with organization branding
- Election night live monitoring dashboard
- Post-election analysis workshop (Stockholm-based)
Target: SVT, DN, SvD, Aftonbladet, Expressen
5 slots available
🌍 Global News Organizations
€7,500 total (75% discount)
3 months (July - September 2026)
Features:
- Full Enterprise API access
- Real-time election monitoring
- Coalition prediction models
- Dedicated integration support (40 hours)
- Custom dashboard configuration
- White-label branding options
- Post-election analysis workshop (virtual)
Target: The Economist, FT, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP
10 slots available
How to Apply
- Contact: pether@hack23.com
- LinkedIn: Connect with James Pether Sörling, CEO
- Include: Organization name, team size, election coverage plans, API use case
Application Deadline: March 2026 (rolling acceptance until slots filled)
Early Bird Bonus: Apply before December 2025 for additional 10% first-year discount
Media Organization Use Cases
SVT (Swedish Public Television)
Use Case: Impartial comprehensive coverage with automated MP scorecards
- Real-time performance dashboards for all 349 MPs
- Automated fact-checking for live debates
- Coalition stability meter for election night
Dagens Nyheter (DN)
Use Case: Investigative journalism with pattern detection
- Anomaly detection for hidden conflicts of interest
- Historical voting pattern analysis
- Deep-dive data for investigative reports
The Economist
Use Case: Comparative democracy analysis for global audience
- Swedish election as Nordic democracy case study
- Coalition prediction models for international readers
- Comparative analysis with other parliaments
Reuters
Use Case: 24/7 automated parliamentary monitoring
- Real-time API integration for breaking news
- Automated alerts for significant political events
- Historical data for context in news stories
Technical Specifications
API Access
- Architecture: RESTful API
- Authentication: OAuth 2.0
- Rate Limits: Unlimited for pilot participants
- Response Time: <200ms (P95)
- Uptime SLA: 99.9%
- Documentation: OpenAPI/Swagger specification
Dashboard Features
- Real-time Monitoring: Vote results, turnout, projections
- Coalition Stability Meter: Live risk score updates
- MP Scorecards: Attendance, voting patterns, productivity
- Custom Alerts: Email, SMS, Slack integration
- Export Capabilities: PDF, Excel, PowerPoint
- White-label Branding: Enterprise tier customization
Data Coverage
- MPs: All 349 members of Riksdag
- Historical Data: 1971-2024 (50+ years)
- Votes: 10,000+ annually
- Documents: 20,000+ processed annually
- Update Frequency: Real-time for votes, daily for documents
Join the Intelligence Revolution
Swedish Election 2026: Prove the power of systematic political transparency