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* MCP Tool: analyze_coalition_dynamics
*
* Detect voting coalitions, cross-party alliances, group cohesion rates,
* and coalition stress indicators.
*
* **Intelligence Perspective:** Coalition analysis tool detecting voting blocs,
* measuring political group cohesion, and identifying emerging cross-party alliances
* using CIA Coalition Analysis methodology.
*
* ISMS Policy: SC-002 (Input Validation), AC-003 (Least Privilege)
*/
import { AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema } from '../schemas/europeanParliament.js';
import { epClient } from '../clients/europeanParliamentClient.js';
import { buildToolResponse } from './shared/responseBuilder.js';
import type { ToolResult } from './shared/types.js';
import type { DataAvailability, MetricResult } from '../types/index.js';
import { auditLogger, toErrorMessage } from '../utils/auditLogger.js';
interface CoalitionPairAnalysis {
groupA: string;
groupB: string;
cohesionScore: number;
/** null — vote-level data not available from EP API; not a real vote count */
sharedVotes: number | null;
/** null — vote-level data not available from EP API; not a real vote count */
totalVotes: number | null;
allianceSignal: boolean;
trend: string;
}
interface GroupCohesionMetrics {
groupId: string;
memberCount: number;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
internalCohesion: number | null;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
defectionRate: number | null;
/** null when EP API does not provide per-MEP voting statistics */
avgAttendance: number | null;
/** Voting-derived stress indicator; null when EP API does not provide voting statistics */
stressIndicator: MetricResult;
/** Explicit marker indicating whether voting-derived metrics are available */
dataAvailability: DataAvailability;
computedAttributes: {
disciplineScore: number | null;
fragmentationRisk: number | null;
unityTrend: string;
activeParticipationRate: number | null;
};
}
interface CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis {
period: { from: string; to: string };
groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[];
coalitionPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[];
dominantCoalition: { groups: string[]; combinedStrength: number | null; cohesion: number };
stressIndicators: { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[];
computedAttributes: {
parliamentaryFragmentation: number;
effectiveNumberOfParties: number;
/** null when cohesion data is UNAVAILABLE */
grandCoalitionViability: number | null;
oppositionStrength: number;
};
confidenceLevel: string;
dataFreshness: string;
sourceAttribution: string;
methodology: string;
}
const POLITICAL_GROUPS = ['EPP', 'S&D', 'Renew', 'Greens/EFA', 'ECR', 'ID', 'The Left', 'NI'];
/**
* Classifies a coalition cohesion score as a qualitative trend string.
*
* Thresholds:
* - **`STRENGTHENING`** — score > 0.6: cohesion is above the stability baseline
* - **`STABLE`** — score in (0.4, 0.6]: cohesion is in a neutral range
* - **`WEAKENING`** — score ≤ 0.4: cohesion is below the stability baseline
*
* @param score - Cohesion score in the range `[0, 1]`
* @returns Trend classification string
*/
function classifyCohesionTrend(score: number): string {
if (score > 0.6) return 'STRENGTHENING';
Iif (score > 0.4) return 'STABLE';
return 'WEAKENING';
}
/**
* Computes a pairwise coalition cohesion record for two political groups.
*
* **Limitation:** The EP API `/meps/{id}` endpoint does not expose per-vote
* statistics, so true pairwise voting cohesion cannot be calculated directly.
* Instead, cohesion is **approximated from group size balance**: smaller groups
* aligned with a larger group tend to behave more homogeneously, so a balanced
* size ratio proxies coalition alignment potential.
*
* Formula: `cohesion = min(sizeA, sizeB) / max(sizeA, sizeB)` (range 0–1).
* `sharedVotes` and `totalVotes` are set to `null` to reflect data limitations.
*
* @param groupA - Political group identifier for the first group
* @param groupB - Political group identifier for the second group
* @param groupAMembers - Sample-based member count estimate (lower bound) for `groupA` derived from EP API data
* @param groupBMembers - Sample-based member count estimate (lower bound) for `groupB` derived from EP API data
* @param minimumCohesion - Threshold above which `allianceSignal` is set to `true`
* @returns {@link CoalitionPairAnalysis} record where `cohesionScore` is an
* approximation based on group-size balance (not actual voting behavior — see
* **Limitation** note above), `sharedVotes` and `totalVotes` are `null`
* (vote-level data is unavailable from the current EP API)
*/
function computePairCohesion(
groupA: string,
groupB: string,
groupAMembers: number,
groupBMembers: number,
minimumCohesion: number
): CoalitionPairAnalysis {
// Use relative group sizes as a proxy — no synthetic seed-based data
const totalMembers = groupAMembers + groupBMembers;
const balance = totalMembers > 0
? Math.min(groupAMembers, groupBMembers) / Math.max(1, Math.max(groupAMembers, groupBMembers))
: 0;
const cohesionScore = Math.round(balance * 100) / 100;
const sharedVotes = null; // Not available from EP API without vote-level analysis
const totalVotes = null;
return {
groupA, groupB, cohesionScore, sharedVotes, totalVotes,
allianceSignal: cohesionScore > minimumCohesion,
trend: classifyCohesionTrend(cohesionScore)
};
}
/**
* Fetches sampled MEP membership counts for each target political group from the EP API
* and builds {@link GroupCohesionMetrics} records.
*
* **Note (data scope):** This function queries the EP `/meps` endpoint with a capped
* `limit` of 50 MEPs per group (first page only). As a result, the derived
* `memberCount` for a group is a **sample-based lower bound**: larger groups with
* more than 50 MEPs will be undercounted. Callers MUST NOT treat `memberCount` as
* an authoritative total; it is intended for relative, coarse sizing only.
*
* **Note (voting data):** The EP API `/meps` endpoint only returns group membership
* information, not per-MEP voting statistics. As a result, `internalCohesion`,
* `defectionRate`, and `avgAttendance` are set to `null`, `dataAvailability` and
* `stressIndicator.availability` are set to `'UNAVAILABLE'`, and `unityTrend` is
* `'UNKNOWN'`. Callers should treat these fields as "not available" and supplement
* these results with vote-result data when available.
*
* @param targetGroups - Political group identifiers to query (e.g., `['EPP', 'S&D']`)
* @returns Promise resolving to an array of group cohesion metric objects, one per group,
* where `memberCount` values are based on a capped first page of results (max 50 MEPs)
* @throws {Error} If any EP API call for a group fails
*
* @security EP API calls are limited to 50 MEPs per group per ISMS Policy AC-003
* (least privilege — request only the data needed for analysis). This limit also means
* that reported group sizes are approximate lower bounds, not full enumerations.
*/
async function buildGroupMetrics(targetGroups: string[]): Promise<GroupCohesionMetrics[]> {
const metrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[] = [];
for (const groupId of targetGroups) {
const mepsResult = await epClient.getMEPs({ group: groupId, limit: 50 });
// Per-MEP voting statistics are not available from the EP API,
// so cohesion/defection/attendance are reported as null with UNAVAILABLE marker.
// memberCount is capped at 50 (single API page) and may undercount large groups.
const memberCount = mepsResult.data.length;
metrics.push({
groupId,
memberCount,
internalCohesion: null,
defectionRate: null,
avgAttendance: null,
stressIndicator: {
value: null,
availability: 'UNAVAILABLE',
confidence: 'LOW',
reason: 'Per-MEP voting statistics not available from EP API'
},
dataAvailability: 'UNAVAILABLE',
computedAttributes: {
disciplineScore: null,
fragmentationRisk: null,
unityTrend: 'UNKNOWN',
activeParticipationRate: null
}
});
}
return metrics;
}
/**
* Builds all pairwise coalition pair analyses for the target groups.
*
* Iterates over the upper-triangle of group combinations (O(n²)) and calls
* {@link computePairCohesion} for each pair using the sample-based `memberCount`
* estimates from `groupMetrics` (see {@link buildGroupMetrics} for data scope limits).
*
* @param targetGroups - Ordered list of political group identifiers
* @param minimumCohesion - Cohesion threshold for `allianceSignal` detection
* @param groupMetrics - Pre-fetched group metrics containing sampled `memberCount` per group
* @returns Array of {@link CoalitionPairAnalysis} records for every group combination
*/
function buildCoalitionPairs(
targetGroups: string[],
minimumCohesion: number,
groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]
): CoalitionPairAnalysis[] {
const pairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[] = [];
for (let i = 0; i < targetGroups.length; i++) {
for (let j = i + 1; j < targetGroups.length; j++) {
const groupA = targetGroups[i] ?? '';
const groupB = targetGroups[j] ?? '';
const groupAMembers = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === groupA)?.memberCount ?? 0;
const groupBMembers = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === groupB)?.memberCount ?? 0;
pairs.push(computePairCohesion(groupA, groupB, groupAMembers, groupBMembers, minimumCohesion));
}
}
return pairs;
}
/**
* Maps a numeric stress indicator to a qualitative severity string.
*
* Threshold: stress > 0.7 → `'HIGH'`; otherwise → `'MODERATE'`.
* A `'LOW'` tier is not emitted here because only groups with
* `stressIndicator > 0.5` reach this function (see {@link computeStressIndicators}).
*
* @param stress - Stress indicator value in `[0, 1]`
* @returns Severity classification: `'HIGH'` or `'MODERATE'`
*/
function classifyStressSeverity(stress: number): string {
if (stress > 0.7) return 'HIGH';
return 'MODERATE';
}
/**
* Derives stress indicator records from group metrics.
*
* Conceptually, this emits records only for groups where
* `stressIndicator.value > 0.5` (moderate-to-high internal tension). Each
* record contains a human-readable indicator description, a severity
* classification from {@link classifyStressSeverity}, and the list of
* affected groups.
*
* **Current data limitation:** The upstream {@link buildGroupMetrics} implementation
* sets `stressIndicator.value` to `null` (UNAVAILABLE due to missing EP
* vote-level statistics). As a result, the `stress !== null && stress > 0.5`
* guard in this function is never satisfied and it will currently return an
* empty array until real stress values are populated.
*
* @param groupMetrics - Array of group cohesion metric objects
* @returns Array of stress indicator records for groups exceeding the 0.5 threshold;
* currently always empty due to `stressIndicator.value` being `null` (EP API limitation)
*/
function computeStressIndicators(groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]): { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[] {
const results: { indicator: string; severity: string; affectedGroups: string[] }[] = [];
for (const g of groupMetrics) {
const stress = g.stressIndicator.value;
Iif (stress !== null && stress > 0.5) {
results.push({
indicator: `High defection rate in ${g.groupId}`,
severity: classifyStressSeverity(stress),
affectedGroups: [g.groupId]
});
}
}
return results;
}
/**
* Computes parliamentary fragmentation metrics using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI).
*
* **Effective Number of Parties (ENP):** `1 / Σ(seatShare²)` — a standard political
* science measure of party-system fragmentation. Higher values indicate a more
* fragmented parliament.
*
* **Grand coalition viability:** Approximated as the mean of EPP and S&D internal
* cohesion scores, since a grand coalition between the two largest groups is the
* canonical EP majority formation scenario. A value of `null` reflects the current
* data limitation (voting statistics unavailable from the EP API and thus no
* reliable viability score can be computed).
*
* @param groupMetrics - Array of group metrics with `memberCount` and `internalCohesion`
* @returns Object with `effectiveParties` (ENP) and `grandCoalitionViability` (0–1 or `null` when unavailable)
*/
function computeFragmentationMetrics(groupMetrics: GroupCohesionMetrics[]): {
effectiveParties: number;
grandCoalitionViability: number | null;
} {
const totalMembers = groupMetrics.reduce((sum, g) => sum + g.memberCount, 0);
const seatShares = groupMetrics.map(g => totalMembers > 0 ? g.memberCount / totalMembers : 0);
const herfindahl = seatShares.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s * s, 0);
const effectiveParties = herfindahl > 0 ? 1 / herfindahl : 1;
const eppCohesion = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === 'EPP')?.internalCohesion ?? null;
const sdCohesion = groupMetrics.find(g => g.groupId === 'S&D')?.internalCohesion ?? null;
// Return null when cohesion data is unavailable to avoid misleading computed score
const grandCoalitionViability = (eppCohesion !== null && sdCohesion !== null)
? Math.round((eppCohesion + sdCohesion) / 2 * 100) / 100
: null;
return { effectiveParties, grandCoalitionViability };
}
/**
* Identifies the dominant coalition from the sorted pair list.
*
* The dominant coalition is the top-ranked pair by cohesion score. Its
* `combinedStrength` is set to `sharedVotes`, which is currently `null`
* when vote-level data is unavailable due to EP API limitations — see
* {@link computePairCohesion}.
*
* @param sortedPairs - Coalition pairs sorted descending by cohesion score
* @returns Dominant coalition record, or an empty record if the list is empty
*/
function buildDominantCoalition(sortedPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[]): {
groups: string[];
combinedStrength: number | null;
cohesion: number;
} {
const topPair = sortedPairs[0];
if (topPair === undefined) {
return { groups: [], combinedStrength: null, cohesion: 0 };
}
return {
groups: [topPair.groupA, topPair.groupB],
combinedStrength: topPair.sharedVotes,
cohesion: topPair.cohesionScore
};
}
/**
* Derives the `computedAttributes` block for the coalition dynamics analysis.
*
* - **`parliamentaryFragmentation`** and **`effectiveNumberOfParties`** both echo the
* ENP value (two fields for different consumer use cases).
* - **`grandCoalitionViability`** reflects EPP + S&D cohesion mean (see
* {@link computeFragmentationMetrics}).
* - **`oppositionStrength`** is approximated as `1 − topCohesion`, where
* lower top-pair cohesion implies a stronger opposition bloc.
*
* @param fragMetrics - Fragmentation metrics from {@link computeFragmentationMetrics}
* @param sortedPairs - Coalition pairs sorted descending by cohesion score
* @returns Computed attributes object for the coalition dynamics result
*/
function buildCoalitionComputedAttrs(
fragMetrics: { effectiveParties: number; grandCoalitionViability: number | null },
sortedPairs: CoalitionPairAnalysis[]
): CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis['computedAttributes'] {
const topCohesion = sortedPairs[0]?.cohesionScore ?? 0;
return {
parliamentaryFragmentation: Math.round(fragMetrics.effectiveParties * 100) / 100,
effectiveNumberOfParties: Math.round(fragMetrics.effectiveParties * 100) / 100,
grandCoalitionViability: fragMetrics.grandCoalitionViability,
oppositionStrength: Math.round((1 - topCohesion) * 100) / 100
};
}
/**
* Handles the analyze_coalition_dynamics MCP tool request.
*
* Detects voting coalitions, cross-party alliances, group cohesion rates, and
* coalition stress indicators across European Parliament political groups.
* Uses CIA Coalition Analysis methodology to measure parliamentary fragmentation,
* effective number of parties, and grand-coalition viability.
*
* @param args - Raw tool arguments, validated against {@link AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema}
* @returns MCP tool result containing coalition pair cohesion scores, group cohesion
* metrics, dominant coalition, stress indicators, and computed fragmentation attributes
* @throws - If `args` fails schema validation (e.g., missing required fields or invalid format)
* - If the European Parliament API is unreachable or returns an error response
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({
* groupIds: ['EPP', 'S&D', 'Renew'],
* minimumCohesion: 0.5,
* dateFrom: '2024-01-01',
* dateTo: '2024-12-31'
* });
* // Returns coalition pair analysis with cohesion scores, stress indicators,
* // and parliamentary fragmentation index
* ```
*
* @security - Input is validated with Zod before any API call.
* - Personal data in responses is minimised per GDPR Article 5(1)(c).
* - All requests are rate-limited and audit-logged per ISMS Policy AU-002.
* @since 0.8.0
* @see {@link analyzeCoalitionDynamicsToolMetadata} for MCP schema registration
* @see {@link handleComparePoliticalGroups} for per-group dimension comparison
* Analyze coalition dynamics tool handler
*
* Detects voting coalitions, measures political group cohesion, and identifies
* cross-party alliances using CIA Coalition Analysis methodology. Fetches real
* MEP membership counts from the EP Open Data API; pairwise cohesion is derived
* from group-size ratios (per-MEP voting statistics are not available from the
* EP API `/meps/{id}` endpoint).
*
* **Analysis outputs:**
* - Group cohesion metrics (member count, stress indicator, fragmentation risk)
* - Pairwise coalition strength for each group combination
* - Dominant coalition identification
* - Stress indicators for groups with high internal tension
* - Parliament-wide fragmentation index (Herfindahl–Hirschman)
* - Effective number of parties (ENP)
*
* > **Note:** Confidence level is `LOW` because per-MEP voting statistics
* > are unavailable from the current EP API. Cohesion/defection/attendance
* > metrics are null with `dataAvailability: 'UNAVAILABLE'` and should be
* > supplemented with vote-result data when available.
*
* @param args - Tool arguments matching AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema
* @param args.groupIds - Political group identifiers to analyze (optional; defaults to all 8 groups)
* @param args.dateFrom - Analysis start date in YYYY-MM-DD format (optional)
* @param args.dateTo - Analysis end date in YYYY-MM-DD format (optional)
* @param args.minimumCohesion - Minimum cohesion threshold for alliance detection, 0–1 (default 0.5)
* @returns MCP ToolResult containing `CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis` object as JSON
* @throws {Error} When the EP API request fails or group data cannot be fetched
* @throws {ZodError} When input fails schema validation (invalid group IDs, date format)
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* // Analyze all political groups with default settings
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({});
* const analysis = JSON.parse(result.content[0].text);
* console.log(`Fragmentation index: ${analysis.computedAttributes.parliamentaryFragmentation}`);
* ```
*
* @example
* ```typescript
* // Analyze specific groups with higher alliance threshold
* const result = await handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics({
* groupIds: ["EPP", "S&D", "Renew"],
* minimumCohesion: 0.6,
* dateFrom: "2024-01-01",
* dateTo: "2024-12-31"
* });
* ```
*
* @security Input validated by Zod. Errors sanitized (no stack traces exposed).
* ISMS Policy: SC-002 (Input Validation), AC-003 (Least Privilege)
*/
export async function handleAnalyzeCoalitionDynamics(
args: unknown
): Promise<ToolResult> {
const params = AnalyzeCoalitionDynamicsSchema.parse(args);
try {
const targetGroups = params.groupIds ?? POLITICAL_GROUPS;
const groupMetrics = await buildGroupMetrics(targetGroups);
const coalitionPairs = buildCoalitionPairs(targetGroups, params.minimumCohesion, groupMetrics);
const sortedPairs = [...coalitionPairs].sort((a, b) => b.cohesionScore - a.cohesionScore);
const stressIndicators = computeStressIndicators(groupMetrics);
const fragMetrics = computeFragmentationMetrics(groupMetrics);
const analysis: CoalitionDynamicsAnalysis = {
period: { from: params.dateFrom ?? '2024-01-01', to: params.dateTo ?? '2024-12-31' },
groupMetrics,
coalitionPairs: sortedPairs,
dominantCoalition: buildDominantCoalition(sortedPairs),
stressIndicators,
computedAttributes: buildCoalitionComputedAttrs(fragMetrics, sortedPairs),
confidenceLevel: 'LOW',
dataFreshness: 'Real-time EP API data — political group composition from current MEP records',
sourceAttribution: 'European Parliament Open Data Portal - data.europarl.europa.eu',
methodology: 'CIA Coalition Analysis — group composition from real EP Open Data MEP records. '
+ 'Per-MEP voting statistics are not available from the EP API /meps/{id} endpoint; '
+ 'each group metric has dataAvailability: UNAVAILABLE with null cohesion/defection/attendance. '
+ 'Coalition pair cohesion is currently derived from group size ratios only; '
+ 'coalitionPairs.sharedVotes and coalitionPairs.totalVotes are null (not computed from vote-level data). '
+ 'Data source: European Parliament Open Data Portal.'
};
return buildToolResponse(analysis);
} catch (error) {
const errorMessage = error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error';
auditLogger.logError('analyze_coalition_dynamics', params as Record<string, unknown>, toErrorMessage(error));
throw new Error(`Failed to analyze coalition dynamics: ${errorMessage}`);
}
}
/**
* Tool metadata for MCP registration
*/
export const analyzeCoalitionDynamicsToolMetadata = {
name: 'analyze_coalition_dynamics',
description: 'Analyze political group coalition dynamics including cohesion rates, cross-party alliances, defection rates, and stress indicators. Computes parliamentary fragmentation index, effective number of parties, grand coalition viability, and opposition strength. Uses CIA Coalition Analysis methodology.',
inputSchema: {
type: 'object' as const,
properties: {
groupIds: {
type: 'array',
items: { type: 'string' },
description: 'Political group identifiers to analyze (omit for all groups)',
minItems: 1,
maxItems: 10
},
dateFrom: {
type: 'string',
description: 'Analysis start date (YYYY-MM-DD format)',
pattern: '^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$'
},
dateTo: {
type: 'string',
description: 'Analysis end date (YYYY-MM-DD format)',
pattern: '^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$'
},
minimumCohesion: {
type: 'number',
description: 'Minimum cohesion threshold for alliance detection (0-1)',
minimum: 0,
maximum: 1,
default: 0.5
}
}
}
};
|